Trends and Emerging Market Opportunities in Continuing Education

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  This report aims to aggregate and build upon recent SCPS research in an effort to recognize the evolving CE environment and idetnify trends that can provide dynamic insight on issues and opportunities affecting SCPS today
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  • 1. Trends and Emerging Market Opportunities Dorothy Durkin Associate Dean Office of Strategic Development and Marketing October 2009
  • 2. In an Evolving CE Environment, Trend Analysis Provides Dynamic Insight on Issues and Opportunities Affecting SCPS Today <ul><li>This report aims to aggregate and build upon recent SCPS research </li></ul><ul><li>Over the past year, SCPS has looked at: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment Trends in the New York City Region: Where the Jobs Are </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trends in Professional and Continuing Education </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Baby Boomers – Motivations and Activities Related to Continuing Education in the Current Economic Climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of Revenue Opportunities in Executive Education, Graduate Education, and Summer and Winter Sessions for the Revenue Task Force </li></ul></ul> What are the economic, social, and employment trends influencing opportunities to grow enrollments in existing programs or to launch new programs?
  • 3. While the Federal Reserve has Declared a “Leveling Out” of Financial Problems, Conditions in NYC Continue to Get Worse <ul><li>So far, NYC has suffered considerably less in this recession than the rest of the U.S. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Since employment levels peaked in August 2008, NYC has lost 110,000 jobs, or 2.9 percent; since peaking in December 2007, the U.S. has lost 6.46 million jobs, or 4.7 percent </li></ul></ul><ul><li>However, as the recession slows nationally, unemployment continues to rise in NYC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rose to 10.3 percent in August, up from 9.5 percent in July; higher than the national rate of 9.7 percent </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The stimulus package has postponed and, in some ways, diminished the initial impact of the recession in NYC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recent figures emphasize how the crisis has devastated the financial services industry which has driven growth in NYC for quite some time </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The financial sector remains the driver for the local economy, impacting job growth in other sectors – credit remains tight, apartments are empty, and construction has plummeted </li></ul><ul><li>NYC is expected to lose a total of 250,000 jobs – about half have been lost so far </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Job losses expected to continue through the middle of 2010 </li></ul></ul>
  • 4. With Unemployment Accelerating at a Faster Rate for Those Without a Degree, the Value of Higher Education has Never Been Higher How is SCPS leveraging this data and emphasizing its value proposition in the positioning of new and existing programs?
  • 5. Moving Forward, SCPS Should Continue to “Manage” the Economic Downturn by Creating Student Value Through Experimentation
  • 6. By Offering Innovative Proposals for Prospects to Continue Learning, SCPS Can Embrace Today’s Challenges and Position Itself Well Among New and Existing Audiences <ul><li>Retrain laid-off workers for roles in areas with current career opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare graduates for positions in emerging fields such as renewable/“green” energy and health information </li></ul><ul><li>Acknowledge social trends that may alter/expand the SCPS audience today </li></ul><ul><li>Engage prospects, current students, and alumni via social networking </li></ul>
  • 7. Staples of the NYC Labor Market Have Taken Well-Publicized Hits Due to the Economy, Yet a Current Snapshot Reveals Growth and Opportunity in Specific Areas <ul><li>Finance/banking </li></ul><ul><li>Media </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Real Estate </li></ul> <ul><li>Specialized areas (e.g. web and java developers, project managers, consultants) </li></ul><ul><li>Accounting/financial control </li></ul><ul><li>CRM </li></ul>Certificate programs can be used to target professionals looking to develop skills in emerging, specialized areas.
  • 8. In Addition, Mayor Bloomberg Has Underscored the City’s Strategic Investment in Certain Industries as Part of a “Diversification” Effort <ul><ul><li>Fashion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bioscience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Construction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Information technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul></ul> <ul><li>Areas covered by Bloomberg’s “Five Borough Economic Opportunity Plan” include: </li></ul><ul><li>The plan aims to create jobs through a variety of strategies, including: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Providing access to capital for new/existing businesses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Helping small businesses train workers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The establishment of new job placement facilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment in infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Construction of new commercial/retail centers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The promotion of tax credit programs </li></ul></ul>With Mayor Bloomberg’s agenda established, the question is not just what employment categories are growing, but which are relatively stable (i.e., declining least). Additionally, an important trend may be recognizing the opportunity to serve recent college graduates (e.g., with graduate programs or specialized certificates in in-demand fields) as they wait out a generationally poor economy.
  • 9. The Monster Employment Index Is a Useful Source for Studying Real-Time Hiring Trends by Occupation <ul><li>In recent months, the occupations with the greatest relative strength in NYC include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protective service: 173 (157 in March) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Community and social services: 118 (111 in March) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare practitioners and technical: 120 (109 in March) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military specific: 106 (107 in March) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Installation, maintenance and repair: 104 (87 in March) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Only a few occupations have shown actual growth in job listings since December, according to the index (July index value vs. December index value) : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Community and social services (118 vs. 102) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Protective service (173 vs. 150) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military specific (106 vs. 104) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Finally, it is important to note other occupations that have been declining but are fairly stable on a relative basis : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Education, training, and library (87 vs. 94) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media (87 vs. 92) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare practitioners and technical (120 vs. 130) </li></ul></ul> The index is a “broad and comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand conducted by Monster Worldwide, Inc. Based on a real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from a large, representative selection of online career outlets, including Monster, the Monster Employment Index presents a snapshot of employer online recruitment activity.” The base value for the index = 100 in 2005. E.g., an index value of 75 = a 25% decline since 2005.
  • 10. However, While Certain Occupations and Industry Sectors Have Held Up Relatively Well, the Situation Bears Monitoring <ul><li>As the job losses continue, tax revenues decline, and the contagion spreads across industry sectors, the following caveats apply to these occupations and industries: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Education is not necessarily sheltered. “When school began in September, as many as 100,000 of last year’s teachers did not have jobs, resulting in an overall drop in education jobs in the U.S.,” estimates the National Education Association on Aug. 11 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The American Federation of Teachers notes that historically many teachers laid off during tough times quit the profession. New York City laid off 15,000 teachers during its fiscal crisis in the 1970s. It later recalled 10,000, but only 3,000 returned. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Similar tax revenue and government funding concerns apply to protective service, community and social services, and certain segments of healthcare . </li></ul></ul> <ul><ul><ul><li>The recession is now starting to hit jobs in healthcare – as reported in the Wall Street Journal on April 12th, citing the example of 400 recent and more pending layoffs at New York Health and Hospitals Corp., as the state cuts Medicaid payments. </li></ul></ul></ul>Source: Wall Street Journal “A Hard Lesson for Teachers,” Aug. 11, 2009 “Recession Now Hits Jobs in Health Care,” Apr. 12, 2009
  • 11. With Career Changers at the Forefront of the Labor Market, SCPS Programs Can Serve to Ease Future Transitions <ul><li>Leverage important and innovative changes in technology (e.g., specialized languages and platforms like Java, AJAX, and SQL; data analysis, web management, social networking, online marketing) </li></ul><ul><li>Help individuals transition their career experience or functional knowledge into new functions or industry sectors (e.g., interdisciplinary certificates) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g., financing and accounting for IT companies; selling and marketing to tourism and retail, and engineering intersecting with green/environmental and energy occupations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Prepare individuals for careers in high-growth occupational roles that cut across industries, such as: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information technology, accounting, web development, business analysis and consulting, sales and marketing, CRM/customer service </li></ul></ul>
  • 12. Moving Forward, Job Creation Will Likely Stem From Areas Addressed by ARRA Stimulus Funding <ul><li>New industries developed and expanded as a result of ARRA stimulus funding will require a wide range of skills for workers shifting to these industries </li></ul><ul><li>Among the industries receiving ARRA stimulus monies, two categories appear to provide a high degree of opportunity for new programs for SCPS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental Sustainability, “Green Development” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare and Health Information Technology </li></ul></ul> Existing SCPS programs in direct and related fields provide the foundation to grow programming in either of these areas.
  • 13. Related to Energy Challenges, Environmental Sustainability Is Moving to the Forefront of the National Dialogue <ul><li>The definition of sustainability that is most often quoted in industry web sites and journals is one that is over 20 years old. The Brundtland Report, presented in 1987 at the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development, defined sustainability as: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>This definition, while somewhat vague, is purposefully flexible and can suit many different angles of the sustainability crusade </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability and “green collar” jobs are a significant part of President Obama’s stimulus package passed in February 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>A growing number of consumers, businesses, officials, government organizations, and higher education institutions are addressing the issues surrounding sustainability in an effort to increase their own effectiveness as well as to raise general awareness of the topic </li></ul><ul><li>The United States Conference of Mayors predicts a potential increase of 4.2 million green collar jobs by 2038 </li></ul><ul><li>The green building market is estimated to more than double through 2011 </li></ul>
  • 14. NYC Is One of the Most Sustainable Cities in the Country, Placing 5th of 50 Cities in the 2008 Sustain Lane Rankings <ul><li>Mayor Bloomberg’s “PlaNYC” sustainability plan was recently unveiled, and contains 127 separate initiatives, including: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Revamping aging infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planting 1m trees over 10 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensuring all city residents live within a 10-min. walk from a park </li></ul></ul>
  • 15. Today, NYC Employs the Largest Number of Green Workers; Job Creation in This Area Is Also Expected to be Highest Nationally Top 10 Current and Potential Green Jobs Ranked by Metropolitan Area Existing “Green” Jobs in 2006 New “Green” Jobs Through 2038 1 New York City, NY 25,021 197,971 2 Washington, D.C. 24,287 192,165 3 Houston, TX 21,250 168,136 4 Los Angeles, CA 20,136 159,321 5 Boston, MA 19,799 156,660 6 Chicago, IL 16,120 127,545 7 Philadelphia, PA 14,379 113,772 8 San Francisco, CA 13,848 109,570 9 San Diego, CA 11,663 92,285 10 Pittsburgh, PA 9,627 76,174
  • 16. Green Initiatives Can Be Split Into Four Main Components Green job source Description Renewable Power Generation <ul><li>Reducing electricity that is generated by fossil fuels (e.g., coal) and replacing it with more environmentally friendly methods of electricity-generation. These include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydro </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geothermal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biomass </li></ul></ul>Residential and Commercial Retrofitting Building more energy-efficient buildings as well as retrofitting existing buildings to be more energy-efficient. Renewable Transportation Fuels Using renewable fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel for the transportation sector. Engineering, Legal, Research and Consulting Using professional services related to the creation and implementation of green jobs.
  • 17. There May Be Many Green/Sustainability Dimensions That Could Apply to Existing SCPS Program Areas <ul><li>The sustainability trend is creating sub-segments within existing industries and functions – many niche opportunities could result, especially since the large population of NYC yields one of the largest concentrations anywhere of relevant individuals and industries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Green building/construction management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability in real estate and hospitality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Business/management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability officers/PR </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability and environmental law </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability in arts and design </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eco-tourism </li></ul></ul> While master’s degrees are certainly a possibility, certificates (both credit and noncredit) would provide a logical format for targeting individuals working in fields that are focusing on green initiatives.
  • 18. The Implementation of Health Information Technology (HIT) Is Another Megatrend That Will Have a Significant Impact on Demand for Programming <ul><li>The HIT components of the stimulus package, collectively labeled HITECH, contained $19 billion for health information technology and health information exchange </li></ul><ul><li>The legislation contains $2 billion in grants to create a national system of computerized health records and $17 billion in higher Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements for physicians and hospitals to adopt the technology </li></ul><ul><li>Starting in 2011, physicians would get bonuses between $44,000 and $64,000, and up to several million dollars per hospital, if they show they have computerized their medical record systems </li></ul><ul><li>In 2015, any hospital participating in Medicare that does not meet the electronic records use standard will be penalized a percent of their reimbursements through the federal programs, with similar penalties being phased in for physicians </li></ul> Lying at the intersection of healthcare management and information systems management, HIT is an area SCPS is well-suited to develop programming and support a growing labor need.
  • 19. Health Information Technology Initiatives Require New Skill Sets That Could Potentially Be Served by SCPS Programming <ul><li>Businesses supporting needs of new HIT industry </li></ul><ul><li>IT infrastructure support, including security, privacy, networking, installation, technical support </li></ul><ul><li>Software/hardware development for products aligning with health records standard </li></ul><ul><li>Up to $70K/office under ARRA to install HIT </li></ul><ul><li>Training for usage in software and records management </li></ul><ul><li>Health-IT support needs </li></ul><ul><li>Training for usage in software and records management </li></ul><ul><li>Health-IT support needs </li></ul><ul><li>Up to $2M under ARRA to install HIT </li></ul><ul><li>Health-IT support needs, including security, privacy, networking </li>&l
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